Hacking, chs 14-16

The best idea in chapter 14 is... an explanation of the distinction between penchant (propensity, disposition) and determining cause (fatalism) (cf. 123).  This distinction helps resolve a worry about statistical fatalism. The worry arises because of a tension between a 'metaphysical' and a 'political issue (cf. 121).  The tension is that on the one side we have an enormous political success in altering social conditions to improve various aspects of life, health, crime, etc., and then on the other side this political success seems to undermine our standard sense of moral (or metaphysical) agency.  The distinction between propensity and determination helps resolve this tension as follows.  The political success of social reform operates on propensities of actors; it does not compel actors or necessitate anything; it is probabilistic.  This can be construed as leaving intact a metaphysics and morality of freedom; this is because social reform posits propensities not necessities.

The best idea in chapters 15 and 16 are... tbd.